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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 61.63 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1338, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 470.10 USD/t, increasing prices
• Demand lower than what is usual in February.
• Unchanged contractual monomer olefin price for February
• Ethylene (C2) contract price roll over (985 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price roll over (925 EUR/t),
• Increasing SM prices
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +05 €/t (995 €/t)

Olefin monomer roll-over means basically roll-over on the polymer market as well. Most of the producers announced at least unchanged prices for February.  Individual WE producers tried a minor price increase but they repelled by the market.  What is more, in case of LDPE there was rather a minor price drop by about 10 €.  In spite of the fact that LDPE supply is not really broad. Also HDPE is prone to a minor price decrease, IM grades in particular, due to the import from overseas. But in case of other polymer grades roll-over is typical. What is more, in case of homopolymer grades, as supply is short, cheap prices at about 1,100 €/t start disappearing, moving also average prices up.  This is not true for PPC, where there are still import quantities and they keep arriving, keeping prices down.

Polyolefin producers and traders wait for price increase, but this flat price curve is good for converters. Many are confident that there will be no significant movements 2019 and just like autumn 2018 they will be able to work with stable purchasing prices.  Yet if there will be high price movements, they will be forced to be hunting for cheap quantities on the spot market.

The precautious purchases of converters resulting from unfavorable economic forecasts keep prices at bay. They rather buy lower quantities more frequently. Their willingness to take risks is lower. Polymer producers and distributors experience this caution in the form of dropping demand, though this is not real demand reduction yet. Some sellers try to resolve the problem of “dropping demand” by bargaining with the buyers, granting immediate discounts by 10-20 Euro to them.

The SM price correction from last week (SM contractual price modified from 1,000 €/t to 995 €/t) was not significant, but it was all the more surprising.  The original plan of PS producers was price increase following monomer prices, yet this failed because of the resistance of buyers and because of the uncertain SM price. Since early December SM prices are “unusually” stable. Based on the experience collected during the recent years soon a major price change, price increase shall happen. Though it is too early to write about it, but polymer producers now anticipate an SM price increase by about 50 € in March.  This will absolutely influence demand in February.  The question is, when regional producers will announce order-stop.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of 970-1,050 €/t last week, they practically did not change. Yet the average price dropped by some 10 €.  For the time being the situation of LDPE is uncertain. Many anticipate the worsening of the relative price position (price compared to other polymer grades) in March as well. First of all due to the increasing import quantities from overseas. The worsening of the position might somewhat be slowed by the almost one month’s shutdown of HIP- Petrohemija due in the second half of March.

In Central Europe the typical HDPE prices remained in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t. HDPE IM was available in a range of 1,050 -1,120 €/t.  HDPE Film prices were in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t. The cheapest positions were typical in the southern region, typically from sources outside of Europe. HDPE BM grades were available in a price range of 1,070-1,160 €/t.  Supply is good.

HDPE (100) prices did not change significantly, they are in a range of 1,240-1,320 €/t. The demand is still typical for February, the real season has not come yet. Polymer producers anticipate the demand to become more dynamic with spring at hand.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 970 - 1,040 €/t last week. They did not change compared to January. Supply is good. As of March the arrival of major import shipments can be anticipated, first of all from the USA. These quantities will appear first of all on the Polish market.

MLLDPE prices are in a range of 1,130-1,340 €/t. They did not change compared to January. Supply is good.

PPH prices were in a range of 1,110-1,240 €/t last week, they did not change compared to January. Demand is good and can be deemed to be high. Yet in Poland PPH Raffia and IM grades alike are short of supply. As SIBUR can supply only limited quantities to the Polish market. This will impact the Czech and Slovak market as well. Other Russian producers (Polyom) bring also no PPH to the CE market and WE sources cannot fill the gap either. 

PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,110-1,180 €/t. The price range of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was 1,110-1,180 €/t.  We have found the highest prices in Hungary, from Hungarian sources. The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,170-1,230 €/t last week.  Yet here because of the shortage of goods it is possible that the price band will shift upwards in the whole region.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,190-1,300 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  They did not change. Some producers tried to increase prices but they failed. The price of the more simple commodity injection and extrusion grades is clearly in a range of 1,230-1,250 €/t.  Supply is good, what is more, as of March the arrival of shipments imported from the Far-East is to be expected. These shipments, as far as it can be foreseen, will conserve cheap PPC, first if all, IM prices in March as well.  The worsening of the relative price position of PPC (compared to PPH) will probably last longer.

The PPR price range was 1,240-1,360 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area, producers did not change their prices. There was roll over in February. Supply is good.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Last week in Central Europe EPS prices were in a range of 1,200-1,280 €/t.   There was roll-over. At the beginning of the week producers were still thinking in terms of a price increase by 20-30 €.  But partially due to the SM price correction from Tuesday and the resistance of buyers there was no price increase. As the EPS insulation season has not started yet, insulation material producers can still wait.  There was just a low number of transactions last week.

GPPS/HIPS prices remained on the level of last month.  Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,130-1,200 €/t last week.  HIPS prices are in a range of 1,180-1,250 €/t. As in January companies tried to buy in advance, now demand is low. Supply is not strong, as traders distributing products from outside of Europe are not willing to sell at this price. They rather retain their inventories.