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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 61.89 USD/barrel, slightly increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1445, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 459.16 USD/t, decreasing prices
• Average demand as usual in January,
• Unchanged contractual monomer olefin price for February
• Ethylene (C2) contract price roll over (985 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price roll over (925 EUR/t),
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +25€/t (1,000 €/t)

The market is waiting for a minor olefin monomer price increase by 10-30 Euro. Polymer producers have prepared as early as in the second half of January for a minor polymer price increase. Yet the naphtha price increase (hardly by 3%) compared to early January did not generate a monomer price increase to the same extent. What will polymer producers do now? Probably they will try roll-over, maybe just one or two WE producers proposed a minor price increase. Yet the price increase expectations that came to a halt make plastic converters uncertain. In this way even roll-over might be endangered during February. During the last one and a half years the behavior of buyers has changed a lot. They increasingly sit and wait with their purchases. Nobody is afraid of goods shortage any more. In the second half of 2018 it came to be general that converters are not afraid of price increase either. This means that expected price increases do not prompt them to buy in advance. The business communications that worked during the last decade does not work for the time being. Also now there are sufficient quantities of feedstock on the market, what is more, there is rather a slight oversupply.  Until the maintenance season starting in the middle of March it will also for sure remain like this. The experience gained 2018 was that shutdowns did not cause any major shortage, just some specific grades were short of supply. This is also to be expected now. The increasing import from outside of Europe makes up for the loss first of all in the polyolefin segment. Olefin monomer roll-over is a wrong message, because it enhances “crisis expectations” with plastic converters, who are getting more and more precautious.  The usual seasonal price increase did not take place in fall and it is to be feared that it will not happen or at least be further delayed till March or even to April.  The volume of orders placed by converters is lower than one or two years ago. The role of spot purchases is getting more valuable.  We are not facing an easy period of time, as due to the new capacities entering the market pressure generated by direct supply will increase on the market. Yet more polyethylene arrives from outside of Europe as well. Business pessimism prevalent on the market does not boost normal purchasing activities either. Converters increasingly tend to buy feedstock for sure business or purchase orders.  In case of polyolefin grades in this way in February no price increase is to be expected and we hope that seasonal price increases will not be further postponed and will start March at latest.

SM spot as it was to be expected has slightly increased (+25 €). This will partially show up also in polymer prices. Expectedly a new price increase cycle will start on the polystyrene market, which will determined the prices of the first 4-5 months in 2019.  A steeper, higher SM price increase in March cannot be excluded, which will still make purchases in February more attractive.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of 970-1,050 €/t last week, they practically did not change. Polymer producers did not change their prices, the price of quantities at traders, distributors have slightly dropped. Monomer roll-over cannot stop the further reduction of the bottom of the price range. Big producers will implement roll-over but the prices of some traders, distributors will drop further. In this way we expect the price range in February to be 950-1,040 €/t.

In case of HDPE the situation is similar. In Central Europe the typical HDPE prices remained in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t. HDPE IM is reachable from a price as low as 1,050 Euro from import and Czech sources alike.  HDPE Film and BM prices were in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t. Here import affects first of all HDPE IM materials. The bottom of the price range is expected to become wider, and the bottom value of the price range to drop by 10 Euro. Polymer producers will expectedly propose unchanged prices, but some producers can also increase prices. This is backed up also by the fact that there were converters who expected price increase last week and have ordered feedstock for February already at higher prices.

The typical HDPE (100) prices in January are in a range of 1,240-1,320 €/t. Demand is low. In this way certain polymer producers have slightly decreased their prices. Prices are expected not to increase because of the longer winter and the monomer roll-over, in this way roll-over is expected in polymer prices as well. In spite of some producers who will probably increase prices by 20 € due to production problems and keep them also up.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 970 - 1,040 €/t last week. The continuous weakening of the USD will decrease prices. Further price reduction is probable.

MLLDPE prices are in a range of 1,130-1,340 €/t. Demand is getting better, yet there is an extremely high number of various grades on the market. Roll-over can be expected in February.

PPH prices were in a range of 1,110-1,240 €/t last week, the price range came to be slightly wider. Demand is slightly lower than last week. PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,110-1,190 €/t. The price range of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was 1,110-1,200 €/t.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,170-1,250 €/t last week.  Because of the good supply roll-over is probable in February.

Typical PPC prices were in a range of 1,190-1,300 €/t in Central-Europe last week, major users could buy spot positions even at prices below 1,200 €/t.   There was no monomer price increase and also there seems to be no polymer price increase.  Similarly to HDPE probably individual European producers will try to increase prices (e.g. by 20 €) due to short inventories.  In this way it is probable that the price range will get broader, but here the top line of the price range will increase.

The PPR price range was 1,240-1,360 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area, producers did not change their prices. Roll over can be expected in February.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Last week in Central Europe EPS prices were in a range of 1,200-1,290 €/t.   Sales were low, producers accepted no orders any more. The season will start slowly. The slight SM price increase helps a lot to make a “regular” season start. In February we expect a price increase following monomer prices. The typical price range is expected to be 1,220-1,300 €/t.

 GPPS prices dropped, they were typically in a range of 1,110-1,200 €/t last week.  The bottom value of the price range has dropped slightly. The bottom and top value of the price range is also expected to increase in February. The extent of the price increase will follow monomer price changes. HIPS prices are in a range of 1,190-1,280 €/t. Demand is good. Buyers know that cheapest prices are there now in the first quarter. Price increase following monomer prices and good demand are to be expected in February.

It is a nuance on the picture about the GPPS/HIPS market that there is a high quantity of GPPS/HIPS from Iran and Egypt in the southern region. Their price is in the bottom band of the price range. Traders distributing these materials are also keen on price increase.