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Waiting for January,

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 63.23 USD/barrel, slightly increasing
• EUR/USD: 1,1754, stable
• Naphtha: 567.88 USD/t, slightly dropping
• In the second week of December the demand is better than in November
• good PPH demand

The second week of December was characterized by good demand. Plastic converters tried to get the feedstocks needed for production in December. Many try buying a little in advance for January, as it is generally widespread that January 2018 will start with price increases on the market of “commodity” polymer grades. The earnest of the price increase is already palpable on the polystyrene market, where several polymer producers declared a 3 digit increase as of January 2018, first of all by referring to the maintenance activities in the first quarter. But the situation is not that clear in case of polyolefin grades. In case of polyethylene grades the slow erosion of prices still continues, though the demand is still higher than in November, but this is not yet enough to keep prices stable. The average agreement on the polyethylene market was roll-over. Yet bigger buyers can achieve, in the frame of customized, end-of-the-year price campaigns also lower prices at large, integrated, regional polymer producers and this will be probably typical also in this half of the month. But non-regional and smaller regional producers do not force selling, they wait for January.  On one hand they rely on the increasing price tendency to come soon, on the other hand, if prices do not increase, it is not expedient to destroy the price level at their buyers. With regard to the price increase in January there are many question marks. The biggest question is, when the low demand will get stronger? And whether a price increase early January, coupled with low demand and good supply would be accepted? Automatic price increase does not result from the present demand and from the inventory dynamics of producers, only in case of a more significant monomer price increase by more than 30 Euro.

In case of polypropylene grades the situation is different, an average price increase by 20 € was accepted on the market. The supply is short and is getting shorter. LyondellBasell and BOP limited PP supply to the Polish market, due to the “force majeure” at the PP plant in Plock.  Though this does not affect the other markets, but on Central-European level this is at any rate associated with the supply getting lower. This will lead to increasing prices, first of all in case of PPC and PPR. This will stabilize PPH prices as well. On the low opening inventory in January it is already possible to build a price increase, even in case of a minor monomer price increase by 10-30 €.

Polypropylene price outlooks are any way more favorable in 2018 than those of polyethylene. Significant new capacities entering production in North-America in 2018 will significantly influence the price performance and profitability of polyethylene grades.   The effect of this will certainly be palpable in the second quarter of 2018 at the earliest, but in the second half of the year at any rate. In case of polypropylene grades no significant increase of the supply is to be expected.

The “jumping” price tendency of polystyrene grades will continue 2018 as well. In the first quarter, because of the maintenance activities announced, short supply is to be expected. Accordingly we anticipate a significant, 3 digit increase as early as in January both on the SM and PS market. Price increases will be, due to the limited European capacities and because of the unpredictable import very steep, both upward and downward also in 2018.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices remained unchanged compared to the first week of December, their typical trading range was 1,170-1,270 €. Supply is good, we do not expect a general price reduction in December. In January producers would like to have a price increase.

HDPE demand is higher than in November, at least this is what market players feel like.  But part of the story is also the fact that due to December import supply dropped, in this way a quasi “equilibrium” was created,   between regional capacities and regional demand. This balance turns into oversupply again in January and will push HDPE prices down. Now the cheapest HDPE price is 1,000 €, this is still below the ethylene monomer price.  In December we anticipate no increase. There are chances for minor price increase following monomer prices in January only.

HDPE pipe (100) price range was 1,350-1,430 €.  There were no significant price changes last week. The “pipe season” will come probably only as late as in February, with silent weeks to come in the meantime.

The cheapest LLDPE C4 prices dropped by a further 10 Euro, first of all in Poland. The typical price was 1,110 -1,170 € in case of large buyers and 1,190-1,240 € in case of smaller ones in Poland. In the other countries of the region the typical price range remained unchanged compared to November, it was 1,200-1,250 €.  Prices depend on the import supply.  By January import supply is expected to increase, again just in Poland.

The prices of mLLDPE were within a range of 1,250-1,330 €.  Demand was vivid last week.  Converters tried to get what they need in December. We do not expect the demand to grow. Supply is dropping as well, European producers also go on holiday.

Central-European PPH producers could enforce a price increase by 20-30 € following monomer prices. Demand came to be slightly better. Because of the price increase expected by January pre-purchases are possible in the second half of December. At the present prices are in a range of 1,060-1,200 € depending on the grade and producer.

Due to the PPC supply getting shorter, the price increase by 20-30 Euro was accepted. Last week demand was good, due to the supply getting shorter. The typical price range was 1,190-1,260 €, which is a price increase by some 10 € compared to last week.  Because of the present supply getting shorter and due to the prices expected to increase in January growing demand is probable, and so is even a minor average price increase by 20 €.

PPR supply came to be shorter, yet prices did not change, the typical price range was 1,240-1,330 € last week.  Most converters tried to purchase the quantities needed for December. In December we anticipate no price change. Also the probability of pre-purchases is lower, due to the short supply.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The polystyrene market shows its worst face again, at least from the point of view of converters. Import supply is very short, due to the high Asian prices. European producers are not able to satisfy even the European demand. It is not by chance that many market players have declared, now, in the middle of December, a 3 digit price increase for January, even without knowing the SM price.  Nothing seems to be in the way of the margin increase of PS producers any more.

In case of EPS the typical price range was 1,650-1,750 € last week, increased slightly compared to the previous week. Producers have already closed the “order books”, they accept orders for January only.

Even the cheapest Iranian GPPS price increased by 30 € last week, but the price of about 1,300 € is available in the SCE region only, everywhere else rather a price of about 1,400 € is typical. Because of the limited availability the continuous increase of the prices is probable, also in the second half of December. By January a clear, 3 digit increase can be expected.

HIPS supply became shorter. There is no import from outside of Europe on the market and European products are not available either. At the present prices start at 1,500 € and are even as high as 1,700 in case of film grades. January will come up with a significant, 3 digit price increase.

You have read the last price report of this year. Please read our next report on January 8, 2018 in the morning.

We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.