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The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 61.67 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1084, further strengthening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 490.41 USD/t, slowly increasing prices
• Spot monomer prices:
• Ethylene (FD NWE) 855 € / t
• Propylene (FD NWE) 800 € / t
• Styrene (FD NWE) 900 € / t
• Unusual market equilibrium in the last 2 weeks.

October this year will give market players a sense of balance. Although polymer demand is not high, it is weak,  supply is not very active. True, the main reason for this is that a significant number of sellers have spent the last two weeks on the "K". But after they return, on the first business day of November, we will face real oversupply on the market.

Oil and NAPHTHA rose slightly. These could even lead to higher monomer and polymer prices in November. But neither sellers nor buyers trust real price increases. Both for monomers and polymers. Polymer manufacturers are trying to minimize their year-end inventories, which is why demand for monomers is weak. This is also reflected in spot monomer prices - they are falling. This subdued demand is expected to persist in November. Thus, no price increase can be expected for ethylene and propylene monomers. The most likely monomer price scenario is a 0-20 € /t price drop, for propylene maybe -30 Euros. This translates into a similar reduction in polymer prices under current demand/supply conditions. Plastics converters also have sufficient inventory and tend to minimize end-of-year inventory. Thus, strong polymer demand is not expected in November. This is also interesting because PE seems to be beginning to be affected by the fall in the price at the beginning of the month. Average LDPE prices increased by around € 5-15. This is despite the fact that there are very cheap items on the market e.g.: Belarusian LDPE 920 € / t in Poland. This lower price increase in average prices is likely to have been due to inactive sellers. However, PP showed the opposite trend: a slight decrease of EUR 10-20 was observed, mainly in the southern region, for homopolymer grades. This is despite the outage of one of the largest PP capacities in the region at MOL's Tiszaújváros plant.

Polystyrene producers are also expecting a decrease in the price of SM, which is likely to be between € 30 and € 60 based on the current market situation. Overall demand for PS is good and outstanding for EPS. The picture was confused only by cheap Iranian materials. A possible price decrease would again make European polystyrene grades competitive in the lower price segment.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  930-1,020 €/t last week.  Supply and demand appear to be in equilibrium. Price ranges have not changed. However, as already mentioned, average prices in Poland increased slightly by 5-10 €. These are mainly European-made materials. However, there is also a cheap supply of Belarusian and Russian grades. In November, prices will follow the price change for ethylene monomer.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 940 - 1,110 €/t in Central Europe last week. They did not change. There is practically oversupply in Europe, but there have been no signs of this in the last two weeks. Demand remains weak and is not expected to pick up next week either. Converters are likely to wait for November prices, which producers  are expected to announce on November 4. Monomer following price change is likely.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 940-1,080 €/t last week. The cheapest prices in the southern region continue to come from the Serbian HDPE producer.

Typical HDPE IM prices were in a range of 950 - 1,070 €/t in Central Europe. With weak demand. The price band has expanded slightly. The cheapest prices are now around 950 Euros. Price change is expected in the week ahead.

HDPE Film grade prices were  in a range of 940-1,110 €/t in Central-Europe last week. They did not change compared to last week. Demand and supply were in balance.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,220-1,300 €/t last week.  Prices have not changed. Due to the upcoming season end, prices may fall even exceeding the monomer price drop.

The LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 950-1,040 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Prices in Romania are still low, between 950-1,020 €/t. In Poland, however, prices have been in the range of 990-1,040 € / t.

 mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,220 €/t last week. There was no change compared to last week.  Prices are unlikely to rise next week. In November, prices will follow the ethylene monomer.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of  970-1,080 €/t. There was a smaller price reduction at the Serbian producer. In addition, prices were stable with weak demand. A fall in propylene (C3) monomer prices is likely in November. And at a similar rate, PPH Raffia prices will fall.

The price of PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 980-1,110 €/t. The lowest prices were in the southern region. In other countries, including Poland, prices were typically above € 1,000. The price of products with high flow index prices was in a range of € 1,060 - € 1,180 / t, they dropped slightly. MOL force majeure has no effect. There is no PPH shortage. Demand recovery is not expected next week. By November, monomer following prices are likely.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,100 to 1,240 €/t in Central Europe. They fell slightly. Demand is weak and the market expects price drop in November.

PPR prices were in the range of 1,130-1,250 €/t. They fell slightly. Most transactions were made below € 1,200. Demand is low. After November 4, recovery is expected in the knowledge of the new prices.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,200 €/t last week. The insulation materials business is buzzing. The September fears that this year will not be a season are a thing of the past. In fact, insulation producers are hoping that the first half of November will be suitable for outdoor construction work. Lively demand is expected in November if the weather is good. Thus, a smaller decrease than the likely SM price decrease is likely.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,220 €/t, while  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,195-1,310 €/t . Demand is good and is in balance with the supply.  There are non-European imports on the market. Not too much. In case of SM price decrease, the total price decrease is likely to pass on to polystyrenes as well.

ABS prices are in a price range of 1,430-1,650 Eur. Demand is lower than usual, but supply is not too strong. Thus, the sense of "balance" that characterizes other polymers is typical here. In November a price reduction following SM prices is probable.