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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 76.89 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1404, EURO stagnating
• NAPHTHA: 662,85 USD/t, decreasing prices
• average October demand,
• In November lower demand is to be expected
• Broad supply,

Ongoing and expected maintenance activities in Central-Europe:

Last week market players were busy with the prices expected in November: Theoretically we shall get prepared for olefin monomer price reduction, this is supported by the dropping oil, NAPHTHA and spot monomer prices alike. On the PE and PP market converters already forecast a dropping (lower than in October) demand for November. All this means under normal market conditions that monomer and polymer prices have to drop.  But the monomer price change and polymer price change are not yet over. A part of WE polyolefin producers prepares for a major (even three digit) price increase, first of all in terms of LDPE.   Referring to two reasons, one is the low and unsustainable “spread” and the other are the logistic difficulties resulting from the low water level of the Rhine River. 

With regard to LDPE their efforts are useful for the whole market.  In particular as in Central Europe so far the goods of WE producers caused the low level of LDPE prices. The cheapest goods arrived from the west via traders and they are regularly below the prices of local producers, generating a downward price spiral.  It is to be feared that due to the increasing prices unsold inventories would accumulate again and such inventories would be poured upon Europe again.  Market players in CE are sceptic about the price increase. Yet all would be happy would prices below 1,100 € disappear from the market, and this would ensure a minimum profitability to the members of the LDPE value chain.  Now the profit appears at the converters that have contracted their finished product sales according to WE listing but purchase at real prices in CE.

With regard to olefin monomers ethylene (C2) price will drop by 0-20 €, while in case of propylene roll-over is to be expected.

The dramatic drop of SM spot prices continued on the spot market, the closing price last week (1,180 USD/t (FOB Rotterdam)) is exactly the same as one year ago and is by 135 USD lower than one month ago.  In this way a price reduction by three digits is not excluded either. In particular as on the polystyrene market demand weakened further last week.

 In detail

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices did not change. The typical price range was 1,060-1,140 €/t last week in Central Europe.  In November market players have forecast dropping demand. If the price increase efforts of WE producers will be successful, then prices might climb back to a price range of 1,120-1,160 €/t.

The HDPE demand is still high, supply is usually good, but the availability of Unipetrol and MOL grades is still limited. The typical CE prices have dropped slightly last week.  The bottom value of the price range (mainly in Poland) has dropped by some 30 Euro, in this way the typical CE prices were in a range of 1,170-1,260 €/t last week.  We expect unchanged prices in November.

The HDPE (100) demand is dropping. Some pipe producers announced as early as now that they will be down in the last days of November.  Shutdowns will continue until the end of January. Therefore they retain their purchases as well. Prices were in a range of 1,350-1,450 €/t last week.  But due to the decreasing demand a price reduction by 10-40 Euro is probable.

The typical prices of LLDPE C4 did not change either, they were in a range of 1,080 and 1,150 €/t last week.  Demand is good and in line with the season.  In November roll-over is probable.

mLLDPE prices were in a range of 1,260-1,400 €/t last week.  Because of the end of the agricultural stretch season the demand has dropped significantly, first of all in Poland. In this way in November we can clearly anticipate oversupply that might result in price erosion.  In November prices might drop by even 10-40 Euro which might further reduce the price of first of all cheaper (commodity) grades.

The face of the PPH market did not change in the last week of October.  CE PPH raffia prices were in a range of 1,190-1,240 €/t.  The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index came to be a little broader, the price range is 1,200-1,260 €/t. The price of goods with high melt index started from 1,250 €. In November unchanged prices, maybe minor price reduction resulting from propylene monomer price changes is expected.

Typical prices of non-special PPC grades were in a range of 1,280-1,400 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  But this still seems to be too high for converters. The demand for off-grade, and “near to prime” materials is increasing. Supply of these grades is increasingly higher.   In November, due to the demand expected to drop, depending on the monomer price change, slightly dropping prices can be anticipated, price will change in a range of 0-20 Euro.

The PPR price range was 1,320-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  Demand is low and is dropping further. Because of the end of the construction season the demand for pipe grades declined. A minor increase is still to be expected in the field of food packaging materials, due to the Christmas at hand. A price drop by about 0-20 € can be expected in November.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The end of the EPS season is at hand.  By the end of October the demand has dropped. Purchasing forecasts for November indicate also lower demand. Last week the typical price range was 1,500-1,650 €/t.  In November a price reduction corresponding to the extent of the SM price reduction is to be expected.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS was low. The price reduction was already to feel. The price ranges of GPPS grades produced in Europe became narrow, higher prices (in case of products made in Europe) have dropped slightly.  In case of GPPS the price range is 1,440-1,510 €/t, and the HIPS price range is 1,480-1,580 €/t. Importers are entrapped, they cannot decrease their prices significantly, in this way European materials slowly start regaining their competitive edge also in terms of prices.  In November, because of the low demand a price reduction exceeding the monomer price change is to be expected.