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MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE NOT INTERESTED IN FURTHER PRICE REDUCTIONS

The prices of “commodity” polymers were affected by the following factors last week:

• BRENT oil price 41.77 USD/barrel, slightly dropping prices
• NAPHTHA (European) 379.18 USD/t, stagnant prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1860, the euro weakening against the dollar,
• The Zloty and the Forint and the Czech Koruna weakened again,
• Russian supply is still tight

Demand for polymers has been weak over the past week, due to weaker-than-usual demand for plastic products. Low-priced spot items also didn’t shake the market. For November and December, with declining demand, converters no longer want to stockpile. Not for PE, PP or PS. Uncertainty over the emerging second wave of the COVID-19 virus is also reducing demand. However, some packaging producers are still condent that November will be a stronger month than October due to Christmas demand. Moreover, in their opinion, a smaller price increase is conceivable in November. However, these expectations did not induce speculative forward purchases either.

Price expectations point in the direction of stable prices. No one expects a larger price movement of more than +/- 10-30 euros by the end of the year. Converters are not really interested in further reductions in polymer prices. The low raw material price is a dangerous starting point for price negotiations for the next year, half year and quarter. Probably this is also the reason why plastic converters are open to a smaller price increase of 10-20 €/t. Mostly in the SCE and NCE region. As a result of the cheap spot items being sold out, a smaller increase in PE and PP prices was already observed last week. Polymer prices are likely to follow monomer prices in November. For some special grades (PE-100) spread growth is expected, relative price increase.

Due to the olen monomer prices in November, the stagnant naphtha and oil prices, they do not bring much surprise, a price change of +/- 10-20 € / t is likely. The price curve remains at.

The price of Styrene monomer is not expected to move much in November either. However, the large difference between PS and SM prices also allows for a larger price increase of more than € 30.

Polyolefin grades

In the second full week of October, LDPE prices ranged from 850 to 960 EUR/t. The transaction took place at a price between 880-930 €/t. There are still no or very few Russian LDPEs on the market, however, again there are Western European materials on the market mainly in the Baltics and Poland. Central European producers sold their production in October. As a result, there was a smaller increase in spot prices of around € 20 in Poland. Producers working with weekly pricing do not plan a price change for the last week of October. As Russian prices are higher than in Central Europe and supply in Western Europe remains tight, a smaller price increase is conceivable in November compared to October.

In the third full week of October HDPE prices were in a range of 820-950 €/t in Central Europe. Typical transaction prices are in a range of 840-920 €/t. The cheapest prices are in the Baltics and the SCE region. Few transactions have occurred. Cheap spot items are slowly running out, as a result of which a smaller (10-30 € / t) price increase was observed in Poland, the lower value of the price band increased. Converters are basically expecting a roll-over for November compared to prices in early October. But a smaller price increase of € 10-20 is also considered acceptable.

In detail

• HDPE BM: 840-940 €/t,
• HDPE IM: 820-950 €/t,
• HDPE FILM: 820-950 €/t,

In the third full week of October the prices of HDPE (100) grades were in a range of 990-1,040 €/t they did not change compared to the previous week. Demand is good. Pipe manufacturers are preparing for good November demand. In the Baltics, some manufacturers do not plan to shut down in December either, production will continue, with stocks being built for the expected very good rst quarter of 2021. The news of the price increase is widespread in the market, the pipe manufacturers expect a price increase of 10-20 €.

In the third full week of October, LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 830-950 EUR/t. The cheapest prices were in Poland and the Baltics, in a range of 850-900 €/t. Demand is good. We expect good demand for November as well and a price change following the change in the dollar exchange rate.

In the third full week of October, mLLDPE (C6) prices were in the price range of 870-1,140 EUR/t. They did not change compared to last week. Few transactions have occurred. Plastic converters expect unchanged prices for November.

In the third full week of October, typical PPH Raffia prices ranged from 820 to 950 €/t, depending on the producer and grade. The cheapest prices were in the SCE region. Even the leading Central European producers have gone down to low price levels at large customers in exchange for quantity. They had to follow the pricing policies of local smaller PP producers. Prices were € 20-40 higher in the MCE and NCE region. Demand will not strengthen signicantly in November either, so price uncertainty will persist and even persist until the end of the year.

In the third full week of October the prices of PPH IM non-special grades with low and medium ow melt index were in a range of 840-950 €/t last week in Central Europe. Products with a high melt ow index were offered by polymer producers and traders at prices between 880-990 €/t. Demand is not bad. There was no signicant decrease in spot prices either. The shortage of Russian goods is felt in both the NCE and SCE regions. Converters are preparing for a smaller price increase in November.

In the third full week of October typical PPC prices were in a range of 930-1,040 €/t in Central-Europe. They did not change compared to last week. Demand remains weak and we do not expect to strengthen this year.

PPR prices for the third full week in October were in a range of 990-1,090 EUR/t last week. They decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Demand remains good, supply is somewhat tight.

Demand is expected to weaken already in November. Converters consider a small price increase of 10-20 €/t to be acceptable.

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 940-1,020 €/t last week. They did not change compared to last week. Few transactions have occurred. The insulation season is slowly coming to an end. This signicantly reduces demand. However, due to the second wave of COVID, the demand for packaging material will increase, which will strengthen the demand. However, overall, demand in November-December will be weaker. Thus, EPS prices are likely to fall in November.

In the third full week of October, GPPS prices were in a range of 900- 1,020 EUR/t. They did not change compared to last week. HIPS prices were in a range of 940-1,100 €/t. Prices did not change compared to last week. Demand for GPPS is still good, supply is narrower than usual. HIPS prices are kept stable by the high price of ABS.

In the third full week of October the total natural ABS price range was 1,350-1,600 EUR/t. Prices remain stable. Grades with a high melt ow index (MFR 34) are still in short supply and their prices are high. The tight supply is expected to persist in November, leading to a relatively high price level.