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Price increase for sure in October

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• Strong demand in Europe, good autumn season in Central-Europe
• BRENT oil price 56.86 USD/barrel, it is increasing
• EUR getting stronger, EUR/USD: 1.1948
• Minor polyolefin price increases last week,

In detail

The high and balanced demand for plastic finished products continued last week as well. Plastic converters reported about high orders.  Polymer producers reported about balanced, not rush-like, but high demand. As one trader described the situation:” buyers buy well”.

An obstacle during the month was only highly restricted shipping capacities. Due to this some shipments were delayed even by one week. This is particularly true for materials received from Western Europe. In this way there were delays and bottlenecks both on the ordinary and sport markets. In the opinion of polymer producers, traders in Western Europe it is worth wile to place their orders earlier to ensure on-time delivery. But bringing orders forward could even significantly boost demand on temporary basis, prompting price increases.

The market is waiting for price increase in October, which is first of all due to the price increase of the feedstocks (crude oil, naphtha, monomers) on the other hand due to the usual seasonal effects, due to the high demand. Ethylene shortage is palpable, due to the North-American import lost, thus the increasing ethylene price will pull along also the propylene price.

Some Central-European polymer producers, first of all polyolefin producers, increased prices in the course of the month, due to two reasons: on one hand they reacted on the demand and corrected their prices from the beginning of the month, on the other hand they sent a message to the market as to their October intentions.

On the basis of all of these factors polyolefin price increase by 30-50 Euro in October seems to be sure.

But polystyrene grades can be surprising. Though the market anticipates price increase, it is not sure that the significant SM price increase in September will be followed by further increase, and taking into consideration that North-American SM capacities will slowly be back in production again, SM price correction is more and more probable. What is more, in case of PS prices we did not see price increases in the course of the month either. But the SM caused surprises during the last one and a half years, thus monomer price increase and reduction are not excluded in October.

Polyolefin grades

The price of LDPE increased in the central and southern part of our region alike, due to the fact that regional LDPE producers harmonized demand and availability.  The lowest producer prices start from 1,260 €.  Lower quantities will be available at cheaper prices at traders. In Poland goods are not available. There are limited quantities of import from Russia and Iran on the market, but supply is extremely short. The price trend is upward. An average price increase by 30-50 € is to be expected in October compared to September.

In case of HDPE price increase started in the central and southern part of our region, here we experienced only minor price increase by 10-20 € only in the course of the month.  But this was not a uniform increase either. The price of FILM grades has clearly been detached from the BM and IM grades. Due to the intensive demand. The demand for MDPE grades is particularly high, but supply is clearly limited. The price of HDPE FILM grades starts from 1,140 €, the price of MDPE grades is higher than 1,200 € in the central and southern part of Central-Europe.

But in Poland we have found a contrary situation, the price of HDPE FILM grades is low, supply is abundant - Polish prices start from 1,030 €.  Though it is true that these are primarily materials from the Ukraine, Russia and Iran.

HDPE BM and IM prices remained rather stable, it is still possible to buy at prices below 1,100 €.  The situation is similar in Poland as well, but the demand is more dynamic here.

HDPE pipe prices remained stable, the typical price range is 1,270-1,350 €. The monomer price increase by +20-30 € in October seems to be sure.

LLDPE C4 supply came to be short by the second half of the month.  Similar to July this has the heaviest impact on large buyers now. The short supply is partially due to the high demand, partially due to pre-purchases. But we need not get prepared for permanent shortage, traders and producers try to satisfy the demand quickly. The typical price range is 1,170-1,190 in case of major users, 1,200-1,250 in case of minor users. A price increase by 20-30 Euro exceeding monomer prices is probable in October.

mLLDPE supply is stable, continuous, the demand is good.  The typical price range is 1,250-1,350 €/ton. There was no price increase in the course of the month, but a price increase exceeding that of monomer is probable because of the expectedly high demand in October.

PPH demand and supply are good.  There were minor price increases this week in the central and southern part of the region. Here prices clearly start from 1,100 €, both in case of PP Raffia and IM grades.  PPH price ranges are between 1,100-1,190 €, depending on the producer and grade. Poland is a kind of exception, as here it is still possible to buy PPH at prices starting from 1,050 Eur.  In October the market is preparing for price increases exceeding monomer by 20-30 €.

PPC supply is shorter than usual, grades with high melt index are temporarily short on the Polish market in particular, but this can be handled at the present by using converter inventories.  As of October the situation is expected to be resolved. Due to the strong demand, some of the CE producers increased prices last week by 20-30 €, due to this the lowest prices in the southern and central part of the region exceed 1,200 Eur. In Poland lowest prices start from about 1,180 €.  A price increase by 20-30 Euro exceeding monomer prices is probable in October.

In case of PPR prices producers increased prices slightly last week, the typical price range is 1,260-1,360.  The difference between the individual sub regions is only that supply is good in Poland, while it is short in the other parts of the region. Price increase exceeding monomer prices is probable.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The last quarter will be characterized by volatility and short supply in case of certain grades. The SM price is still a question mark to be clear as late as early October. But the source of volatility will clearly be the monomer price.

In case of EPS shortage is still typical.  Minor converters cannot fulfill their contracted production. Safe supply came to be a factor of key importance. Many companies have placed their orders as early as last week, without knowing the October prices. All this means that producers have almost unlimited possibilities for pricing.  In this way we anticipate price increase exceeding monomer prices by 50-80 €.

GPPS supply improved a lot, due to the import quantities received the demand is good and stable.  The fact that converters turned to cheaper grades has slightly retained the price increase. This is a warning sign also for October, the market cannot cope with such jumps in monomer prices, and correction is needed. Otherwise import and other grades can substitute the expensive GPPS produced in Europe. PS prices started dropping in the Far-East, which clearly means correction. In this way it is not excluded that this will happen in Europe as well in October. In case of increasing SM the GPPS price increase will not reach monomer prices. At the present the price range is very wide: 1,500-1,620.

The shortage of HIPS supply seems to be mitigated, due to the retained demand.  Traders are not willing to buy at this price, they wait for correction. Correction is boosted by the fact that at some traders import HIPS is available at prices starting from 1,550 Euro.  The typical price range was 1,550-1,700 € last week.  It is necessary that the price range gets narrower.  We expect a polymer price change not exceeding monomer price changes.