Tr�n� ceny komoditn�ch plast� t�dn�

Before another price increase 2.

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• Strong demand in Europe,
• BRENT oil price 55.62 USD/barrel, it is increasing
• EUR getting stronger, EUR/USD: 1.1944
• The polymer price increase was accepted on the market,

In detail

September shows its pleasant face, not only in the weather, but also in terms of demand. The season is good and in the opinion of the plastic converters the high demand for finished products will persist through November. There are no serious supply problems either, with the exception of EPS. Last week still many were expecting that due to the suction effect of the US market the warehouses of European producers would run empty, but this did not happen. Larger multinational producers (LyondellBasell, Exxon) try to help their American sister companies, but the transportation capacities are also limiter and the hurricane had an impact on plastic converters as well.  For the time being the significant and general price increase in the course of the month does not happen. We need not anticipate supply problems like in 2015 and hysterical price movements. The market and converters learnt that it is better to sit and wait.

The price expectations still point upwards, price increase along with the high demand is probable in October and November alike. In September rather the price of products will increase, where the supply is short, but significant and dramatic price increase is not to be expected.

Polyolefin grades

The price of LDPE remained stable last week, coupled with a high demand. The lowest Central-European producer prices was 1,230 €. This was, delivered to the buyers (DDP) already 1,240-1,260 €. On the CE market supply is short, for the time being no improvement is to be expected. The typical LDPE price range is 1,230-1,280 € and is stable for the time being.  A minor price increase and following the market in a flexible way is most probable in case of polymer producers using weekly pricing.

The demand for HDPE FILM grades is high, supply is short.  It is hard to get medium density polyethylene. Also producers are short of their inventories. The market corrected a bit the price of HDPE, due to the fact that also Polish prices became stable, thus the typical price range is 1,090-1,160 €. The demand is stable, no price increase can be expected in the second half of September either.

HDPE BM and IM market is still down, prices could increase less.  The inventory level of CE polymer producers is high, the typical price range is 1,070-1,140 €. We do not anticipate further price increase and increased demand in September.

HDPE pipe prices increased by an average 40 €, demand is good, stable.  It seems to be increasingly sure that the highly expected large projects financed by the EU will be postponed to next year. We do not expect price increase during the month, the typical price range is 1,270-1,350 €.

LLDPE C4 supply is still good.  But we expect this to become shorter. The effect of the Harvey hurricane will be palpable in October. The typical price range is: 1,160-1,190 in case of major users, 1,200-1,250 in case of minor users.

mLLDPE supply is stable, continuous, the demand is good.  The typical price range is 1,250-1,350 €/ton. We do not expect price increase during the month.

PPH market is also dynamic. Supply is good, the PPH price ranges are between 1,050-1,170 €, depending on the producer and grade. The price range of PPH Raffia grades is 1,050-1,130.  The price range of PPH IM is 1,060-1,180 €. We do not anticipate further price increase in September any more. The market anticipates price increase in October.

In spite of the short PPC supply there is no panic on the market. The cheaper offers appearing on the Polish market have broadened the price range, now the CE price range is 1,230-1,360 €, depending on the grade, melt index and the location of the purchase. The cheapest market is still Poland, the price range is 1,230-1,300 €.

The PPR supply is short, now converters have to use their best efforts to ensure their supply.  In the autumn season we anticipate continuously short supply. Prices are stable, the typical price range is 1,240-1,360

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The players of the PS market are confronted with continuous question marks. Because of the uncertain spot monomer price movements it is hard to charge further the SM price increase with the exception of EPS. Asian spot monomer prices started downhill last week. In the meantime in Europe supply and monomer are short. All this means that the market is extremely exposed. One things seems to be sure: volatility.

There is EPS shortage.  The construction season is strong, prices increased by 230-260 € depending on the buyer, grade, without price negotiation.  Some insulation material producers would pay any price for feedstock. But there are no reachable quantities. Minor converters and even many traders received not goods for September. High prices and feedstock shortage could knock-out insulation material producers out of the market.

GPPS supply is still short, demand is good and high.  PS producers increased prices by an average 170-200 €.  On the market materials from outside of Europe and from Russia appeared on the market, moving the bottom of the price range down, thus more simple injection grades are below 1,400 €. The typical price range is very broad, 1,360-1,560.  We do not anticipate further price increase yet. 

The shortage of HIPS supply seems to be mitigated, due to the minor import quantities appearing.   European producers increased prices by an average 200-220 €.  But also import quantities appeared on the market, first of all from Iranian source. We have got no controlled information about their prices yet, but the first offers are by 100-120 € lower than the price last week.  The typical price range was 1,580-1,700 € last week.