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September contract olefin monomer prices surprised the market on Friday afternoon. The telephone lines were hot and everyone was trying to evaluate the situation caused by the significant drop in olefin monomer prices. Contrary to previous expectations, there is little chance of a September price rollover for polyolefin grades, let alone a rise. The decline in prices is clear. This is bad news for both polymer producers and plastic converters. One of the reasons for strong demand in August was that converters thought it was time to buy, as polymer prices are now at their lowest this year. On the other hand, polymer producers exerted pressure and encouraged converters to buy with smaller discounts. Converters have replenished their feedstock warehouses by the end of last month, hoping polyolefin prices would rise in September. As a result, the otherwise mild August has become a strong month for polymer producers. Now, in early September, it seems certain that PE and PP prices will fall. The question is how much? And what kind of demand will come with falling prices?

Demand is expected to be weaker than usual in the first half of September, partly due to the already high raw feedstock inventory levels at converters. The other is uncertainty. Until it is clear where polymer prices are heading this fall, converters will not be able to develop a clear purchasing strategy either.

For the Central European market, now it is a major “help” that MOL Petrochemical is currently undergoing maintenance and at Slovnaft shutdown is expected in October. Thus, there is no selling pressure from the largest polymer producers. And since they already lowered prices for some product grades in August, it is likely that the ethylene monomer price drop will only be partially accepted on the market during the changer of their prices in September.  However, the prospects for polyethylene prices are significantly worsened by the high volume of HDPE of North American-origin  entering European ports, at prices by 40-50 EUR lower than the current market prices. The supply of MDPE, PPR and PPH grades with higher flow indexes remains tight.

SM prices are not yet known. However, the effects of ethylene price reductions and benzene price increases theoretically cancel each other out. Covestro's maintenance is expected to narrow SM's supply, coupled with a rise in SM's prices in Asia. This could theoretically push the September price of the SM up by even as much as € 20-40.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of  980-1,050 €/t last week, they did not change. In Poland, prices were in a range of 970 - 1,040 €/t. Few transactions have taken place and buyers have been waiting for September prices. Polymer producers did not force sales either, as in August they sold almost everything they wanted. Due to MOL maintenance, supply will be narrower in central and southern Europe. The strengthening dollar continues to weaken the selling position of import, especially from Russia. Thus, an average LDPE price drop by € 20 is expected in September.

Typical HDPE prices were in the range of 1,000-1,120 €/t in Central Europe, while Poland was slightly lower at 980-1,090 €/t. The pressure of overseas import materials is already having an impact here. This pressure is expected to persist in September and during the autumn, and is expected to infiltrate via traders into the rest of Central Europe by the end of the month. The continued appreciation of the dollar now acts against imports, making it more expensive. European HDPE manufacturers will probably try to curb the price decline and not pass on the full monomer price change. MOL Group maintenance will help a lot. Thus, similarly to LDPE, there will be moderate market price decreases. However, manufacturers who have kept their prices high so far will be forced to make major price reductions.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 980-1,100 €/t. Demand was low last week. Prices for September are expected to be in a range of 980-1,080 €/t.

Typical HDPE IM prices ranged from 990 -  1,100 €/t in Central Europe. In September, a price range of 970-1,080 €/t is likely.

HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 980-1,120 €/t in Central-Europe last week. Demand for some MDPE grades seems strong due to tight availability. Other producers have ample availability. In September, prices are expected to be in the range of 970-1,100 €/t.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,240-1,300 €/t last week. They did not change compared to last week. The supply has narrowed. Customers do not expect price changes, however, due to monomer price changes, the price band will widen. In September, the price range is expected to be between 1,230-1,300 €/t.

The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 950-1,080 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. The price band has widened compared to the previous week. This is because cheaper shipments have appeared in Romania and Poland. In the meantime, due to the continued appreciation of the dollar, the prices of major suppliers rose by € 20-30. The dollar is expected to strengthen in September and rising prices are anticipated.

 mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,120-1,250 €/t last week. A price drop of € 20-30 is likely in September.

PPH prices have not changed compared to the previous week. Supply is still short. And it's not expected to be abundant in September either. This includes the maintenance of MOL Petrochemical, production problems at the Wesseling plant of Braskem and the expected decrease in imports from Russia. This also means that the total monomer price drop will not pass on to customers. The price reduction is likely to be between € 20 and € 40.

The typical price of PPH Raffia in Poland was 980-1,080 €/t, while in other countries of Central Europe they were in a range of 990-1,100 €/t last week. Supply and demand are balanced. September prices are expected to be in a range of 960-1,080 € t. Average prices within the price range may fall to a greater extent.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,000-1,130 €/t in Poland. Typical prices in other Central European countries were in the range of 1,000-1,150 €/t. The prices of high flow index grades in Poland were in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t and in other Central European countries in a range of 1,090-1,180 €/t. In the medium to high flow index segment, supply is tight. Average prices are expected to fall by 25-35 €. The expected price band for products with low and medium flow index is in a range of  980-1,100 €/t and for products with high flow index in a range of 1,040-1,120 €/t.

Typical prices for PPC were in a range of  1,130-1,240 EUR/t in Central Europe. Demand remains weak. Broad supply is expected in September. This is probably the only segment where the monomer price drop is likely to go through completely. Thanks to weakening automotive demand. September prices are expected in the price range of 1,120-1,200 €/t.

PPR demand is still good. Prices were in a range of 1,190-1,300 €/t last week. Prices are expected to drop by 20-30 €/t in September.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Grade name	Typical polymer price ranges in the last week of Aug 2019, Central Europe (€/ton)	Expected polymer price ranges in the first week of Sept 2019, Central Europe (€/ton)
HDPE BM	1000-1100	980-1070
HDPE Film	1000-1120	980-1100
HDPE IM	1020-1100	990-1100
HDPE Pipe (100)	1240-1300	1220-1280
LDPE Film	980-1050	950-1020
LDPE GP	990-1050	960-1030
LLDPE C4	980-1060	990-1080
mLLDPE C6	1120-1250	1110-1230
PPC	1130-1270	1120-1230
PPH IM	1000-1150	980-1120
PPH IM HMFR	1060-1180	1040-1150
PPH Raffia	980-1100	950-1060
PPR	1190-1300	1170-1260
GPPS	1120-1200	-
HIPS	1145-1300	-
EPS	1140-1230	-
ABS	1430-1590	-

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 1,140-1,230 €/t last week. By the end of August, European EPS producers had emptied their stores. In principle, the months with the highest demand are coming now. Converters and producers are preparing for price increases. This is probably the reason why traders are holding back import stocks.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,120-1,200 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,145-1,300 €/t last week. Demand is still good. The “wind” of price increases in the air.

ABS prices were in a price range of 1,420-1,590 € last week. Demand is low. Price changes depend on the price of the SM, and will follow it.