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Definitively increasing polymer prices in September

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• Europe is slowly coming back from holiday.
• BRENT oil price 52.32 USD/barrel, stagnating
• EUR getting stronger, EUR/USD: 1.186
• monomer prices,
• ethylene C2: +30 €/t,
• propylene C3: +40 €/t,
• styrene monomer SM: +190 €/t
• Because of the Harvey hurricane one third of the polymer production of the USA is down

In detail

Olefin monomers brought the paper form with an increase by 30-40 €. At the end of last week most of the European polymer producers prepared for a price increase exceeding monomers in September. But they did so carefully as during the last week of August demand did not increase as expected. The polymer market is still silent, demand was retained last week. This is also a warning sign for polymer producers to be on the alert. We are of opinion that the final extent of polymer price increase will be within a range of 60-80 € in September, but a part of the producers do this in two steps. In the first week of September a price increase by 30-40 € following the monomer price increase, then, depending on the market developments new price increases as of the middle of September.  Large multinational producers come up with a price increase by 60-80 € as early as during the first week both in case of polyethylene and polypropylene. This is all due to the Harvey hurricane and to the petchem capacities shut down because of the hurricane.  Last week the willingness in America to buy all polymer grades on the European market seemed to increase. Therefore the export demand getting stronger means also clearly increasing prices on the European market as well. Large producers capable of export think that even a higher price increase in Europe is safe as export to the USA would also take the “surplus” not sold.

But Central-European producers will probably increase prices in two or more steps. Traders will probably wait, they will not launch their goods on the market during the first week. They will wait for the final price level. During the first week of September there will be probably a high demand for all polyolefin grades, plastic converters will try to buy quickly still before the second wave of price increases. But this is exactly what will prompt further increases.

The question is how much the hurricane is going to reduce the quantity of import arriving in Europe, not only from the American continent, but also from the Middle-East. As the intention from America to buy appeared here as well. In case of goods of American origin the shortage will be palpable as early as in September, while goods from the Middle-East are expected to be in short supply as of October. All this can mean permanently increasing price tendency during September and October in case of polyolefin grades. The consolidation of the situation is expected as of the middle of October.

Styrene monomer caused a surprise again, the increase by 190 € was justified by the short supply, which was caused by unplanned European shutdowns and the capacities being down in America because of Harvey.  In addition the PS season will start now, on one hand in the area of packaging materials and of construction.

All this means that producers will come up with a price increase exceeding monomer prices. Unfortunately the European PS supply will be short because of the shutdown of Versalis-Dunastyr and because of the Asian main season also the quantity of import arriving in Europe will drop.  Plastic converters will thus be forced to cope with major price increases.

Polyolefin grades

The price of LDPE remained stable for the time being, within a range of 1,200-1,260 €. Supply was very low, but the demand was not high either, most of the buyers still do not believe that there would be a major price increase in September. They think that a price increase by 30-40 € is acceptable.  In the first half of September this increase is probable. But if the situation caused by the Harvey hurricane is not resolved, then the complete price increase in September can be as high as 60-80 €.

HDPE FILM, BM and IM prices did not move for 2 months. Demand is not high either. Regional producers have got significant stocks. As they act prudently, they will probable increase prices by 30 € exceeding monomer prices. Of course there will be producers, first of all in WE, who will try to increase prices by 40-60 €, but they will probably not succeed.  In case of HDPE no further price increase is to be expected in the second half of September, unless export to North-America grows significantly.

The HDPE pipe market is waiting for boom. This is not likely to happen this year. The civil engineering season will be over in November. Pipe producers are rather planning for next year. Prices will follow monomer prices with small premium (+10-15 €) an increase by 35-45 € is probable.

LLDPE C4 supply was good in the last week of August and supply in September will be balanced as well.  Compared to August a one-step price increase by 45-60 € is to be expected.  But major plastic converters do not think that they supply in October would be sure, therefore they will use their best efforts to buy in advance in September.

MLLDPE demand is stable, supply is broad. But this will probably become shorter in September. A price increase by 45-60 € exceeding monomer prices is to be expected. The question is supply in the second half of September.

PPH demand was dynamic last week, due to the season and because of the increasing volume of pre-purchases generated by the expected price increases.  Maybe only the demand in Poland was lower than the average of the region.  Because of the good demand the lowest prices in September will be close to or will probably even exceed 1,100 €. An average price increase by 40-60 € is to be expected in September. Supply will be lower than usual due to the import quantities lost. Also in case of PPH a price increase in two steps and the waiting of traders is possible.

Also in case of PPC the arrival of the autumn main season was palpable.  The price level at the end of August was by some 20-30 €/t higher than at the beginning of the month.  In September balanced supply and a price increase by 45-60 € can be anticipated in Central-Europe.

By the end of the month the PPR inventories were sold out, demand was not too high.  But by September high demand and prices increasing by 40-60 € can be anticipated.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Volatility returns to the PS market, the SM price increase exceeds by far the extent that can still be managed. The commodity sector cannot cope with feedstock price fluctuations in the range of 15-20 % from one month to the other.  Unfortunately this type and extent of price increase happens this year already for the second time, thus causing major losses to plastic converters.

EPS prices will be marked by short polymer supply and extremely high SM price increase in September. Though converters anticipate SM price increase, but not to this extent. Especially those who have already concluded the price agreements for the autumn are in trouble. The question is whether producers want to enforce price premium because of the short supply or whether they will grant pardon to their buyers? An EPS price increase within a range of 190-230 can be anticipated.  Also minor EPS converters will no longer be in position to follow this price tendency.

The GPPS market was determined by increasing demand in Central-Europe last week, in the field of packaging materials in particular.  Now the massive average price increase by 200 € can hinder this.  We will see this week, how much of this converters can take. We are of opinion that polymer producers will be forced to sacrifice (part of) their margin, i.e. to increase their prices to a lower extent than the SM price change to reduce the losses of their buyers. This in spite of the fact that European supply is expected to be short in September.

HIPS supply is also low, but demand is halted by the steep price increase by 200 €. Similarly to GPPS it can be expected also here that it will take also here longer to see the final prices for September. Because of the short import and the European supply it is probable that converters will be forced to swallow the 200 € price increase.