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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 74.73 USD/barrel, dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1539, EURO stagnating
• NAPHTHA: 636.95 USD/t, slightly increasing prices
• Stagnating monomer spot prices,
• SM spot price slight increase (+5 USD/MT)
• regional currencies getting stronger,
• low demand, buyers getting informed.

Converters slowly return from the summer holidays. There are just some purchases. For the time being converters are getting informed about prices and polymer availability. With the exception of HDPE, for the time being, all feedstock grades are in good supply.  HDPE is still instantly available at the Serbian producer. Converters expect a price drop but because of the oil and naphtha prices regaining their strength, in case of monomer grades roll-over is the most probable scenario.  Surprisingly we did not see pre-purchases last week.  Converters do not seem to be concerned with the expected shutdowns. They do not expect shortage of any feedstock grade.

The following CE producers prepare for maintenance, shutdown:

HDPE:

• Unipetrol – Litvinov (200 kt/year capacity) – as of September 3, 2018.
• BOP – Plock (320 kt/year capacity) – as of September 17, 2018
• MOL – Tiszaújváros (220 kt/year capacity) – as of September 24,  2018.

PP:

• Unipetrol – Litvinov (280 kt/year capacity) – capacity reduction by some 30% as of August 20, 2018
• MOL – Tiszaújváros (100 kt/year capacity) – as of September 24, 2018
• MOL – Bratislava (255 kt/year capacity) – as of October 15, 2018
• To boot in case of Lyondell Basell shutdown is expected in Wesseling and Ferrara in October and November.

LDPE:

• No shutdown, production reduction is expected in the fall season in Central Europe,
• in Western Europe the plant of Lyondell Basell in Wesseling (230 kt/year capacity) will be down for maintenance as of September 15, 2018.  The shutdown of the 250 kt plant of Versalis in Dunkirk maintenance is to be expected as of September 3, 2018.

In case of LDPE demand and price dropped in Western Europe. Spot offers at the end of the month will get close to those of Central-Europe.  There can be only hopes that shutdowns will contribute to a certain balance on the market.   Yet in case of LDPE no significant price level change is expected until the end of the year.

The market is clearly expecting SM price increase. The expected rate of the price increase getting higher and higher.  At the present an increase by 80-100 €/t is probable.  At the present 90% of the European capacities is producing, the rest is being maintained.

Polyolefin grades

The demand for LDPE did not get more dynamic.  Certain producers try selling their superfluous inventories through spot offers. But this only preserves the low price level. Interest, not buying, for to the product price and availability, increased significantly and this seems to be good news. Prices varied in a price range of 1,060-1,140 € last week.   Polymer producers hope that further relative (compared to monomer prices) price reduction will come to a halt. And prices will be able to reach at least roll-over in September.

HDPE supply is still short in general, in case of BM and MDPE grades in particular.  But among CE producers HIP-Petrohemija still has available inventories. As all three regional polymer producers with high capacities will be down in September, it is possible that certain grades will be of short supply on the market. The typical price range was 1,120-1,240 € last week.  In our opinion prices will increase, compared to the monomer price change they will increase by an average 20 €.

The typical HDPE (100) price range remained stable:  1,400-1,520 €/t.  Converters have got significant inventories.   The short regional supply does not affect pipe producers in September. In case of September prices roll-over is the most probable price scenario.

The CE prices of LLDPE C4 are in a range of 1,080– 1,190 €/t and in Poland in a range of 1,100-1,130 €. Demand is not too high, supply is good. 

The price range of mLLDPE did not change (1,260-1,400 €) last week.  We do not expect price change in September. 

Central-European PPH producers have got significant stocks. First of all IM products with intermediate melt flow index. For the time being the demand is still low.  The prices were in a range of 1,180-1,260 €.  The demand for PPH Raffia grades was already higher, the price range was 1,210-1,290 €.  The price range of more special IM grades was 1,240-1,360 €.   The typical price range was 1,180-1,360 €.  We anticipate growing demand and supply getting shorter. Yet a price change following monomer prices is probable due to the high price level.

Because of the low PPC demand the bottom of the price range dropped by some 20 Euro, thus in Central-Europe last week the typical price range was 1,270-1,440 €/t, depending on the grade and application area.   Demand to get more dynamic and minor pre-purchases are expected by the last week of August. In September roll-over is probable, compared to the prices early August.

The typical PPR price range is 1,300-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  Demand is low.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The expected significant SM price increase will also pull along polymer prices. 

In case of EPS there are already signs of dynamism on the market of insulation materials.  The price increase at hand and the colder weather boost the demand. But there are no free inventories on the market. The typical CE offer price range is 1,520-1,620 €.  We anticipate the demand to get significantly higher during the week ahead, it will be possible to buy in advance also at higher prices.  In September we expect an increase by 70-90 € following monomer prices.

GPPS and HIPS prices alike started climbing, spot prices have increased slightly.   The volume of import from outside of Europe is low on the market, its quantity cannot influence average prices.  The average price of GPPS produced in Europe is in a range of 1,380- 1,520 €.  HIPS prices are in a range of 1,460-1,600 EUR. In September we expect a price increase following monomer prices.