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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• the middle of the summer holiday season.
• BRENT oil price 52.50 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• Euro getting stronger, EUR/USD exchange rate over 1.17 getting stronger
• Ethylene and propylene roll over,
• SM price drop -30 €,
• EPS shortages on the market

In detail

Monomer prices signaled also the direction of the change of polymer prices. There is ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3) roll over, while the price of styrene monomer (SM) dropped by 30 Eur.  In the product groups where supply is short (LDPE, LLDPE and EPS) prices increased.

Polymer producers have basically started August with roll over and with a minor price increase in August in the hope that the higher demand expected in September and the price increase would counterbalance the demand being usually lower at this time. LDPE and LLDPE supply is still short, in this way there was also a price increase here (+20-40 €/t) on the complete European market.  While in case of PP, in line with the market situation there were some minor downward price corrections. As HIPOL restarted last week only and the Bulgarian producer shut down for a maintenance expectedly lasting for two weeks, in the southern region there was PPH shortage first of all in case of cheaper grades accompanied by a minor price increase.

But in Poland the situation is different, polymer producers do not really believe that there would be a major price increase in September, therefore they did not really buy in advance in June, and they will assumedly not buy in the first half of August either. The polyolefin prices in the first half of August, with the exception of LLDPE did not change compared to July.

The SM price was published rather late, last Thursday, the price reduction (-30 €) has slightly surprised the market. Particularly as the strongest season for construction insulation materials (August-October) is at hand and also the summer packaging material season is also at “high rpm”.  It is not by chance that the first price communications on Friday brought rather roll over in case of GPPS, HIPS and price increase in case of EPS. In case of EPS the situation seems to be critical, CE producers, due to the technical problems cannot satisfy the demand. In the meantime the Greek producer being strong also in our region will shut down in August for a planned maintenance (2 weeks). In this way it is no miracle that on Friday we have received news about a price increase by 20-30 €.

Polyolefin grades

Ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3) roll over determine price changes in August, roll over and slight price increase (by 10-30 €) can be experienced.  In detail:

The market has partially considered LDPE price increase into the prices as early as in July. Polymer producers came up with a price increase by 10-35 €. There was a minor price increase where it was possible as early as in July, that is to increase prices following the shortage. Producers working with monthly prices have increased prices significantly. But in Poland this price increase was not possible last week. There were three reasons for that: low demand because of the summer holidays, broad regional supply and diverging expectations. Converters are still not confident that there would be a major price increase in September. Now the price range is  1,190-1,250 €.

HDPE started August with roll over. But demand does not seem to be high for film, blow molding and injection molding grades. Central European prices are still maintained within a range of 1,020-1,100 €.  Cheaper prices were reported in connection with the products of the restarted plant in Kalush (Ukraine) only.

HDPE pipe market is still waiting for the season to start, as the market is strongly depending on EU project financing. In this way the delay of it influences demand as well. Unfortunately, for the time being, the season seems not to be starting in August. Therefore now the market is characterized by low demand and roll over.

The HDPE market does not seem to be able to get stronger, demand is still down, converters and polymer producers do not expect major increase by the autumn.

LLDPE C4 is still double faced. Big converters reported high demand and short feedstock supply. Small converters in turn reported lacking demand.  Big converters still cannot buy enough directly from producers at competitive prices. Smaller converters get a lot of offers from the distributors, but they do not buy much. Therefore polymer producers came up with a price increase by 20-30 € in August. The price range of the first two weeks was 1,110-1,130 €/ton in case of direct sales, while in case of sales via distributors the price range is 1,130-1,160 €/ton.

mLLDPE demand is stable, supply is broad, the price range was 1,190-1,230 € last week, there was roll over.

PPH demand is good, there was a minor shortage in the southern region, and due to this prices increased by some 10 € in the first week of August.  But European producers, including major regional producers as well, did not change their prices significantly, of course there were some minor corrections. The typical price range is 1,020-1,120 €.

On the PPC market there was a high demand through July, due to the low prices.  Some polymer producers tried to increase prices slightly, but they did not succeed in this last week. Converters accepted the roll over. The market accepted minor price corrections (by about +10 €) in the southern region and in Hungary, which was the result of the changes of exchange rates.  Prices are still within a range of 1,150-1,250 €, depending on the grade and on the type of buyers.

PPR supply is stable, prices followed the monomer prices and remained unchanged.  The typical price range is 1,180-1,240 €.  In the second half of the month demand is expected to get stronger.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The 30 EUR SM price reduction surprised the market. But the drop of SM demand is behind this, which is due to the planned and unplanned shutdowns. In this way the supply of each PS grade produced in Europe is short. As monomer prices were published as late as on Thursday only, the first prices were announces only as late as on Friday. In this way the information below reflects only what happened on one day.

EPS supply is particularly short.  Converters are ready to jump at monomer and EPS prices alike. All want to buy, as the construction seasons seems to be very good this year. Unfortunately the supply is the bottleneck. No Central European producer could supply enough last week. In this way it is no surprise that they accept even a price increase by 25-30 €.  In line with our forecast, there was a price increase exceeding monomer price change by some 60 € last week.  The price range is 1,360-1,440 €.

The players of the GPPS market are fumbling around in the dark.  Producers have roll over on their mind, while converters would rather prefer a price change following monomer prices. The technical problems of Central European producers affected GPPS production as well. In this way also the supply is low, which means that rather the roll over price scenario is probable through August. There is now established price range for August yet.

The short HIPS supply is counterbalanced by the low demand caused by the summer season.  The market is in balance. The first news are about roll over. But the reaction of buyers is a question mark. As import supply is good, but materials produced in Europe are hard to get, the situation experienced in July is expected to remain: prices will split into cheaper products imported from outside of Europe and into European products that are by 100-150 € more expensive. There has been no typical price range established last week (Friday) yet. Typical August price ranges to be established are to be expected next week.