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The market is slowly awakening

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 64.62 USD/barrel, slightly dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1,1127, a stagnant Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 542.37 USD/t, slowly further increasing prices
• Restrained demand,
• Spot items from December are being slowly sold out,
• Less North American goods on the market,

2020 is starting slowly. Converters are still looking for cheaper and cheaper prices. Demand for the time being is subdued. In the first half of January, there was still a large amount of cheap merchandise at traders left over from December. However, they are slowly running out. Significant volumes of non-European and Russian imports are available only in Poland. So far, the production of new capacities (1.5 million tons PE, 0.5 million tons PP) commissioned last year at SIBUR has not yet reached the Central European market. So far, only PE (HD/LD) comes from Russia in quantities of 1-2,000 tons, but almost exclusively to Poland. Significant import volumes are expected from February.

Converters expect that there will be cheap imports of PE. The problem is that this is coupled with the expectation of cheap prices as well. This means that North American, Russian and other imported PEs should be 30-50 € cheaper than European PEs. With the current logistical solutions, this is difficult to accomplish, since the bulk of polymer imports arrive in Northwest European ports and the cost of land transport is significant. Only SIBUR's new rail logistics solution appears to be competitive, providing a direct arrival in Central Europe.

Although there was typically a roll-over in case of PE. However, spot polyethylene prices in January suffered a lower average drop of € 10-15 in Central Europe. While PP prices remained rather stable and rose to a lesser extent in case of some producers. However, cheap PPC stocks carried over from December lowered converters' price expectations. But these are largely gone.

NAPHTHA prices continue to rise slightly, with a slight increase in monomer prices likely in February. This may provide a good basis for raising the price of polyolefin grades produced in Europe.

PS market is characterized by low supply. Price increases have only partially passed through, despite converters expecting further price increases. Imports from outside of Europe remain low.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of 860-980 €/t last week in Central-Europe. Although the price range seems to be unchanged, average prices have dropped  by 10-20 €. This is because one of the biggest players in the European market has plowed the market with cheap prices of 890-920 €/t. Imports of LDPE are mainly in Poland from Russian sources, typically at a price level of 880-910 €/t. Its amount is not significant yet.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 905 - 1,020 €/t in Central Europe last week. However, due to North American and Russian goods, the total price range is 850-1,020 €/t, but there is no significant quantity behind cheap goods. Typical prices for each HDPE grade were as follows:

• HDPE BM 900-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE IM prices 910-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM grades 900-1,010 €/t,

The cheapest prices are typically less than € 900, but they are all associated with non-European and Russian imports, and there is little commodity base behind the offers.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,120-1,210 €/t last week. Unchanged prices provide little incentive for buyers to buy. In the lowest price range there are prices below 1,100, but the price level is not significant due to small quantities.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 890-980 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Prices below € 900 mainly cover North American imports.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. They did not change. Slowly increasing demand and plentiful supply are characteristic of the market.

Demand for PPH is generally not bad. Supply is good. Smaller PPH manufacturers still have stocks. However, if demand may continue to pick up, then shortage of smaller grades might develop easily, as Russian imports are missing from the markets and there is only a low quantity on the spot markets.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 900-1,030 €/t last week. They did not change. Demand is slightly weaker than average.

The price of PPM IM non-special products with medium melt index was in a range of 900-1,030 €/t last week. Demand is not bad. Larger manufacturers mostly sold their January volumes. For the time being there is a shortage of demand in the spot markets, which also affects the Serbian PP producer. The PP producers in the SCE region are the cheapest. The price of products with high flow index  was in a range of € 1,000 - € 1,090/t. The bottom of the price band shifted upwards.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,040 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. However, the commodities are slowly running out from the price band of € 1,040 -1,050/t. Due to uncertainties in the automotive industry, we continue to expect weak demand, especially for products with a high flow index.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,100-1,220 €/t last week. Basically a roll-over happened. Demand is low. For the time being, pipe producers are buying little.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,080-1,130 €/t last week. Demand is weak, typically selling in the range of 1,080-1,110 €/t. Although the Central European construction industry is looking forward to a good year in 2020, the start of the season is far from over. In this way converters are cautious. For the most part, everyone buys only enough to cover their daily production needs.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,185 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,200-1,275 €/t. Producers have somewhat let go of their earlier price increases. Prices were raised by around € 50. Demand is low at the present. There is no imported product from outside Europe on the market.

Typical natural ABS prices were in the price range of 1,380-1,630 € last week. The € 50 increase also seems to have failed due to market oversupply and weak demand. However, black fiberglass ABS is in good demand. This indicates that component manufacturers are looking forward to 2020 with confidence.