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No summerlike demand, stable prices

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• clear PE and PP price reduction
• dynamic demand,
• BRENT oil price 48.91 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR getting stronger, EUR/USD exchange rate permanently close to 1.15
• slightly increasing PS prices,
• low Russian demand, Ruble getting weaker.

In detail

Last week polymer producers and traders reported good, balanced polyolefin demand. The lowest PO prices of this year boost demand. The demand this July is not typical for the summer months. Polyolefin producers have closed their order books last week. Plastic converters started cautiously to buy in advance, anticipating a possible further price reduction in August, but roll-over at least. In the first half of August it is absolutely sure that demand will remain low. In this way it will still be possible to buy polyolefin grades at cheap prices. At any rate both converters and polymer producers are waiting for the autumn season, when converters expect more orders and polymer producers increasing prices.

On the PS market it is visible at last that European prices started increasing. But the extent of the average price increase did not reach the extent of SM price increase. The reason is the significant import pressure on the market. Import arrives from Russia and from outside of Europe. The Euro getting stronger continuously enhances the competitive edge of imported goods. The weak Russian demand and the Russian currency getting by 6-7% weaker during the last weeks has an impact on import. In this way an increasing quantity of Russian materials appears also on the WE markets. The continuous growth of import supply worsens also the price level European goods.

Polyolefin grades

Compared to the holiday season demand is good, in case of some PO grades this resulted in minor price increases/corrections. But the Polish market seems to be a late bloomer, here there are still many converters waiting anticipating a cheaper August. The extremely high volume of import goods and goods offered by traders support them in this, as they are regularly cheaper than Central-European producers. In this way it is hard to define the realistic price level.

LDPE was one of such grade, where because of the high demand it is hard to get products at a price lower than 1,150 €.  In case of certain film grades there is shortage, therefore prices increased by 10-15 € in spot sales last week.  The price below 1,150 € is just a privilege for “bonus” buyers.  During the last week the typical commercial price range for converters buying full truck loads was 1,150-1,200 €.  Until the end of July stable prices are expected.

HDPE demand is not high even in the light of those buying in advance.  But Central-European prices are still within a range of 1,030-1,100 € both in case of FILM and BM grades.  In case of  IM grades the picture is different, cheaper import materials from outside of Europe and Russia are available at prices starting from 1,000 €, while the price range of European grades is  1,150-1,140 €. Due to the not too high demand and the import getting stronger a minor price drop by 10-15 € is possible until the end of July.

The HDPE pipe market is in line with the season and shows high demand in Central and Western Europe as well.  The typical price range is 1,230-1,300 €.

LLDPE C4 shortage persists.  First of all Polish large consumers with a high European market share and currently many orders are affected by this.  Thus the price tendency seems to turn around, converters are willing to pay a price premium to the traders to get material. The price premium is case by case 10-20 €/ton. 

mLLDPE is still available within a price range of 1,180-1,230 €.

PPH demand is good.  None of the Central-European producers reduced PPH prices below 1,000 €. But in the southern part of Central-Europe Russian import appeared in a price range below 1,000 €.  For the time being the quantity is not high, and in this way it is not forcing the market to reduce prices. But in this segment import pressure is expected to be the highest as of the end of July, early August. In this way the price of more simple grades that are easy to substitute can drop below 1,000 € all over the region. 

The correction of PPC prices was a success story, the market reacted with significant demand.  Now it is hard to get PPC in the central and southern region. But in Poland supply is rather abundant, prices dropped further this week, here PPC from outside of Europe is available at a price of 1,100 €/ton, while the price range of European grades is 1,130-1,200 €.  By the end of July we expect stable prices.

The PPR market is calculable and stable, the price range is 1,150-1,220 € depending on the grade.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The change of polystyrene grades produced in Europe came close to the increase (by 27.5 €) of styrene monomer price.  The typical price increase was 15-25 €.  But both the benzene and ethylene price dropped in July. The SM price increase was justified by the maintenance at one major Dutch monomer producer only. The market is waiting for the SM price drop in August.

EPS demand is good and in line with the season.  It is here where import pressure is the lowest. But in spite of this polymer producers could not completely enforce their intentions. Converters anticipate SM and EPS price drop in August. The typical price range is 1,335-1,400 €.

GPPS demand is still low. The situation is worsened by the fact that import supply is growing both from overseas and from Russia. The typical price range is 1,230-1,300 € in case of imported materials, while the price of European materials is by 40-80 EUR higher than this, depending on the grade and application.

In case of HIPS the situation is similar to GPPS.  HIPS from the Near-East is available even within a range of 1,250-1,300 €.  Typical HIPS prices of European origin are within a price range of 1,340-1,400 €, but special grades are even as high as 1,500 €.