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Short May for business, with question marks

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 74.87 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1962, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 640.31 USD/t, steeply increasing prices
• Contracted monomer prices in May
• Propylene (C3) +25 €, 952 €/t,
• Ethylene (C2) +20, 1,087 €/t,
• Styrene monomer (SM) -40, 1,285 €/t
• Short and silent week in May

During the short, first, silent week of May demand was low. There were practically no transactions in merit. Also the first polyolefin prices were published on about Thursday. Polymer producers behaved in line with the expectations.  In case of LDPE and LLDPE prices increased at a rate lower than the monomer price increase, while in case of PP there was a price increase following monomer prices, and in case of HDPE in some cases prices increased at a rate exceeding the monomer price increase. Buyers are still thinking.  As to the polyethylene grades, many buyers still believe that prices will drop further. They still keep waiting for price reduction. In spite of the fact that PE sale prices are close to or below monomer prices. This assumption is also supported by occasional rumors about the sale of high lots of PE (first of all LDPE) grades in the last week of the month, at prices much below the market level. In this way, in the first week of the month the price expectations of converters were lagging behind the reality. In case of polypropylenes we are faced with the opposite problem. PP prices are too high, by almost 100 € higher than the average of the similar period of recent years.  Demand is down as converters are confident about prices getting lower. As an example PPC IM grades with intermediate melt index could be mentioned, whose accepted price level would be 1,180-1,220 €/t, but now it is available in a range of  1,260-1,320 €/t. This high price and purchasing at this level is a continuous risk for converters.  In this way they try to keep these risks on manageable level. In May the tensions on the polyolefin market are not expected to disappear. The month will be short because of the holidays.  Due to this also purchases will be retained, in case of PE in particular, which might be linked to a price cut at the end of the month, in case of LDPE in particular.  The unbalance is expected to grow because of the oversupply resulting from the PE import from North-America getting stronger as of the second half of the year, though the weakening Euro will help handle the import situation. But the low ethylene self-costs based on ethane contributes significantly to the flexibility of North-American exporters.

The SM price developed in line with the expectations, dropped by 40 Euro. But PS converters expected more. In this way they expect a price reduction exceeding the change of SM prices. WE producers, in their first price announcements, still tried to increase their margin.  But this will expectedly be unsuccessful, even with regard to the “mandatory” feedstocks. In the meantime, because of the weakening of the Euro, the price of products from outside of Europe started increasing. The Iranian producer keeps adapting its prices to the market and increases its USD prices as well. In this way the closing of the gap between European and import prices that started last month continues.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices are not yet clear.  The offer price range is 1,100-1,180 €/t.  This means a price increase by 10-20 €.  On the Polish market the first price proposal of polymer producers is 1,100-1,160 €/t. The price will probably stabilize in a range of  1,100-1,140 € in the first half of the month, then in the second half we can anticipate cheaper spot prices linked with lower quantities.  In the other countries of the region the prices are similar because of the weak demand and the good supply.  All in all we anticipate low demand and compared to April a price change by 0-10 €.

Some HDPE producers came up with a price increase exceeding monomer prices last week.  This means prices in a range of 1,080-1,170 € in Poland and 1,100-1,200 € in the other countries of the region.  The price increases experienced in the second half of April did not continue. Prices increased by 20-30 € during the period between early April and May.  There was roll-over between the end of April and the beginning of May. MDPE grades are still in high demand, their prices are in the upper third of the price ranges.

LLDPE C4 prices are not yet clear, for the time being we saw April prices.   This means a range of 1,050-1,100 € in Poland, yet the largest producers would like to increase prices by 10-15 €.  It is particularly true here that converters are still hoping that prices will drop or at least not increase. Supply is broad, demand is not yet to see.   The price range in the other countries of the region is 1,080-1,150 €.  In May we anticipate a price change by 0-10 €.

 mLLDPE prices increased by 15-20 € compared to last week. The typical price range is 1,250-1,320 €.  Supply is broad, demand is balanced. Because of the slight oversupply, in the second half of the month we anticipate slightly eroding prices.

PPH producers would like a price increase by 25 €.  Increasing monomer prices and good demand determine the market. The price of PPH Raffia grades in Poland is in a range of 1,140-1,190 €, and 1,150-1,120 € in the other countries of the region.  The price range of PPH IM grades is 1,160-1,250 €, depending on the grade, producer, application area and melt index.  Last week the number of transactions was low, buyers keep waiting and try “catching” the cheap lots left over from the last month.

PPC was offered in a range of 1,250-1,310 in the region.  It is still hard to see prices in Poland because of the long holidays. Yet the intention to increase prices is clear in the whole region. The question mark is the demand. And the relation of the demand with these high prices. We are of opinion that the price increase will be accepted, though in the second half of the month also low quantities of cheaper spot lots can be expected.

On the PPR market the typical price range is 1,280-1,350 €.  Because of the short May demand is not balanced,   as last month, at the end of the month, some grades were short. In this way expectedly the demand will be dynamic which will support the absolute acceptance of price increases.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Because of the low EPS demand in April buyers are not pleased with price reduction following monomer prices, they want more.  In this way the lower band of prices dived below 1,600 €.  Demand tendencies in May are not in sight yet. But because of the construction boom demand is expected to increase.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS is not too high.  The general price level is all in all expected to follow monomer prices. But this means that European producers first decrease their prices at a rate lower than the SM price change, while importers will increase prices. This will result in the price range getting narrower and in the closing gap between prices. This process is now halted only by the ingress of Russian import, which keeps GPPS prices below 1,300 €/t, what is more, in Serbia the price of GPPS is below 1,250 €/t.  The typical GPPS price range is 1,300-1,450 €, and that of HIPS is 1,350-1,500 €/t.