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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 69.40 USD/barrel, slowly increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1228, strong Euro
• NAPHTHA: 542.85 USD/t, increasing prices
• Slightly increasing contractual olefin monomer and steeply increasing contractual SM prices
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +30€/t (1,045 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price +20 €/t  (970 EUR/t),
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +97.5 €/t (1,152.5 €/t)
• Demand in line with the season, yet precautious polyolefin demand.
• Short PE and PP supply
• High PS demand

In case of polyolefin grades polymer producers have mostly followed monomer price increase in the prices in April.  Polyolefin prices increased typically by 20-40 €.  For the time being acceptance is ambiguous.  For the time being converters are assessing their prices and the supply.  However the final price for April will develop next week.  The uncertainty of converters is mainly caused by the gradual disappearance of oversupply that was typical until the middle of March.  And based on this they also have a favorable bargain position. It was worth waiting with purchases in March, yet this is already risky in April.  Now LDPE, PP homopolymer, PP copolymer with high melt index supply is short and is getting shorter.  For converters it is not easy to decide, if it is reasonable to buy now at the prices offered by producers or similar to the last months, they had better sit and wait. Most plastic converters are sure prices will further increase in May. In this way buying might be a reasonable decision.  But for the time being May is still far away, directions can be taken for granted after 10 days only.  As the supply of many polymer grades is short, it is not really possible to further postpone buying.  Those who could build up inventories in March are in the best situation. In this way waiting is also an option for them.

SM has surprised the market a bit. It is true that in March SM spot price had a rough ride on the roller-coaster. From the price of 1,040 USD/t at the beginning of the month it jumped to  1,165 and then by the end of March it dropped to 1,075.  In this way most market players prepared for an SM price increase by  40-60 €. But due to the maintenance activities in progress and to be expected in the field of SM supply is short and will also remain short in April and May. The expected short supply generated the expected three-digit’ monomer price increase.  Due to the high demand and the short supply the price increase by 90-120 EUR will be accepted without any further ado also on the polystyrene markets.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE buyers do not have a clue. With the exception of Poland supply is very short everywhere. Supply in Poland is getting short as well. Producers and traders see already in advance that they will be able to offer just a low quantity of goods in the last weeks of April. Typical LDPE prices were in a range of  1,050-1,140 €/t last week.  European producers increased prices by an average of 30-40 €.  Most deals were made in a price range of  1,060-1,120 €/t. But there were deals made for products produced in April already in a range of  1,085-1,140 €.  There are still smaller positions (some truck loads) with March prices. At HIP-Petrohemija maintenance takes longer and the incident at the plant of LyondellBasell in Aubett is not yet over either. This will probably maintain short supply.  In Poland low quantities of Russian LDPE arrived at a price of 1,050-1,170 €/t, but its price will probably increase, adapting to the higher price level and to the short supply.

While HDPE supply is short, demand is not too high either. According to the producers HDPE supply is always short during the period preceding Easter. Producers increased prices by 20-30 EUR. Here the typical HDPE prices in Poland were in a range of 1,120-1,200 €/t. In the other parts of Central-Europe the price range was 1,140-1,220 €/t.  Still polymer grades from Central Asia are the cheapest.

HDPE BM prices are in a range of  1,120-1,170 €/t in Poland, while in a range of 1,140-1,200 €/t in other parts of Central-Europe.  In Poland supply is balanced for the time being.  In the other CE countries it is short.

The tendency of HDPE IM prices was similar in Poland and also in the other countries of Central-Europe.  Prices in a range of 1,120-1,170 €/t were typical last week.  Supply is still short.

In case of HDPE FILM grades, in Poland, prices were in a range of 1,120-1,200 €/t last week. In the other countries of Central-Europe the price range is 1,140-1,230 €/t.  Supply of unimodal grades is good, that of bimodal grades is short.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,300-1,390 €/t last week. The demand is good, in line with the season.  Only sample positions from outside of Europe cause disturbance on the market. Their price is significantly lower.

LLDPE C4 prices did not change much.   The typical price range is 1,020-1,070 €/t.  Supply and demand are balanced.

MLLDPE (C6) prices still vary in a range of 1,170-1,300 €/t, depending on the grade and producer, last week there was an average price increase by 20-30 EUR.  Supply is balanced and demand is good, in line with the season.

PPH demand is very high.  Supply is still short. Typical prices are in a range of 1,140-1,280 €/t. The shutdown at HIPOL is not over yet, in this way supply is still very short in the southern region.  In Poland, for the time being just in low quantities of PP homopolymer from Russia is offered in Poland again.  But expectedly Russian import can be one of the solutions against short supply.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,140-1,220 €/t in Central Europe last week. The lowest price was in Serbia, but this was not coupled with availability.  Most bids were made in a price range of  1,180-1,220 €/t.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,140-1,220 €/t last week.  Cheapest prices were coupled also here with low availability.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,185-1,280 €/t last week.  Supply is short on the whole market.  But most converters will make their purchasing decisions next week only.

PPC prices also increased by 15-30 EUR. Typical prices were in a range of 1,250-1,350 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  We have found the cheapest prices in Poland.  Demand is good and supply is short.  The supply of PPC IM grades with high melt index is short in the southern region in particular.

PPR prices increased by 15-35 EUR and were in a range of 1,300-1,380 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  Demand is good and supply is short, in the cheaper price categories in particular.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Due to the good weather EPS season has started.  The demand is increasing dynamically. In March the market dominated by supply quickly turned into a market steered by demand.  Supply is limited by the maintenance of the Hungarian plant of  Versalis. Prices increased by   90-120 €, depending on the producer.  Buyers accept the price increase almost without bargain.  There were many deals made last week.   Prices are in a range of 1,360-1,400 €.

Due to the short supply and the high demand there was a price increase by 100-120 €. In this way typical GPPS prices are in a price range of 1,320-1,430 €/t. while HIPS prices are in a price range of 1,350-1,510 €/t. High prices will expectedly prompt also the supply of goods imported from outside of Europe. As also Russian import GPPS appeared at prices of about 1,250 €/t in low quantities for the time being. 

ABS prices have not stabilized yet.  Cheap positions from the Far-East are still present in a price range of  1,490-1,550 €/t. In the meantime European producers try enforcing a price increase by 90-100 EUR following SM prices. In this way the price of certain grades can be as high as 1,700 €. We expect April prices to become final during the week ahead.