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Logistics first

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices last week:

• BRENT oil price 26.98 USD/barrel, falling oil prices.
• EUR/USD: 1.071, weakening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 254.94 USD/t, falling prices,
• All Central European polymer producers are producing.
• Ongoing downtime
  • Rompetrol:  2020. March 15 - May 5, 2020 (LDPE, PP)
  • Expected downtime:
    • Unipetrol: April 6 - May 18, 2020 (HDPE, PP, C2, C3)
    • Logistic disruption, both in terms of raw material delivery and finished product delivery.
    • Limited imports from outside Europe for both PE, PP and PS.
    • There are no major shipping problems for Russian imports yet,

Demand for polyolefin is strong, packaging production is rushing at a high speed, according to one big converter as if it were two Christmases in a row. The panic buying of the population has also pulled the demand for packaging. Film, bottle and cap manufacturers are the winners. Manufacturers of thermoformed and injection molded food packaging, from smaller countries, tend to report normal or lower production. This is probably because, due to logistical difficulties, these products can now mainly be sold on the internal market. Export-oriented manufacturers are facing delivery difficulties due to the slowdown in logistics. But due to shipping difficulties, Western European imports of packaging have dropped significantly. Thus, some Central European manufacturers are now able to gain new customers, new markets.

For the time being, the production of plastic, pipe, film and insulating materials for construction purposes is doing well. There are no unmanageable delivery issues for the time being. However, in Poland smaller converters are already feeling the market slowing down. Smaller, household-funded construction projects are beginning to stop. For the time being, there is no downtime for large state and EU funded investments. In fact, the construction companies, as if in a hurry, would do as much as possible before any forced downtime.

The car industry has stopped or will stop in the coming week in Central Europe. This is likely to be followed by component manufacturers. Compounders are still producing, they are not canceling orders yet, but this is likely to happen in the week ahead.

Deliveries of polymers and their arrival at converters are being delayed due to the temporary closure of Europe's internal borders. Due to long queues and sometimes multi-day waiting times, polymer shipments cannot arrive on time. Therefore, plastic converters are also trying to work with higher stocks to ensure continuous production. Feedstock inventories are enough for more than 30 days, and stocks of 60 days or more are becoming more common. Asian and overseas shipments are delayed by 1-2 weeks. Many converters ignore these materials because of the "virus threat". Russian and Central Asian delivery options are now gaining in value.

Converters expect a drop in prices for all polymers in April. This is supported by the fact that NAPTHA and oil prices have fallen to the level of the 2008 global financial crisis. However, in addition to falling prices, daily volatility is significant. Thus, the real price of oil cannot be determined.

But for the time being, with the increased demand, the issue is not the price, but the availability and logistics. This is evidenced by the fact that the manufacturers producing high capacity PPH film and fibers continuously were willing to pay surcharge for the feedstock last week.

If strong demand for packaging material is maintained, a similar reduction in polymer prices is unlikely, despite the possible 3-digit decline in olefin and SM monomer prices. However, it is impossible to make predictions now, as demand, market situation and logistics options change day by day.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  860-960 €/t last week.  They have practically not changed. In Romania, the price band has expanded by € 10. This is partly due to expectations of falling prices and the fact that demand is not equally strong in all segments.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 850 -  960 €/t in Central Europe last week. Demand shows a mixed picture. Demand for film, blown grades is extremely good. HDPE manufacturers have reported unprecedented demand. Customers' first concern is logistics, second is price.

• HDPE BM:          880-960 €/t,
• HDPE IM:           900-960 €/t,
• HDPE FILM:       850-940€/t,

North American imports of HDPE are still lacking, as well as Russian material in the Central European market. HDPE producers are trying to peak their capacities while demand is so good.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,150 €/t last week.  Demand is good and in line with the season.  In Poland, smaller pipe producers are feeling the slowdown in demand.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 885-1,020 €/t last week. Demand is good. The key issue is logistics. Because all Central European supplies are covered by imports from outside Europe.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,120 €/t last week. Demand picked up due to the packaging material boom.  Many are trying to buy in advance, to ensure continuous production.

Typical PPH Raffia  prices were in a range of 910-1,020 €/t last week.  They did not change. Demand is good. Moreover, demand for spun-bond, melt-blown fiber materials is outstanding. The price of the BOPP film grade has risen slightly over the past week, with prices ranging from 970 to 1,060 €/t. The reason for the price increase was the lost overseas and Middle Eastern imports.

The price of PPM IM non-special products with medium melt index was in a range of 900-1,030 €/t last week. The price of products with high melt flow index  ranged from 970 to 1,080 €/t. Demand is good. With the exception of the southern region, where in spite of the Rompetrol downtime the lower prices of the price band decreased slightly by € 10. The reason is the decline in demand in the “houseware” segment, which is likely to continue.

Typical PPC prices  ranged from 1,040 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. Demand is still good. In countries with a larger internal market, the need for injection molded food packaging is also increasing. This is now pulling the demand. However, the car, furniture industry and houseware are noticeably slowing down.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,100-1,200 €/t last week.  Demand is not strong. There is a lower demand in the pipe sector and there is no significant increase in demand for PPR packaging.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,030-1,100 €/t last week. Demand is good. Primarily in the insulation material segment. Construction companies and department stores are trying to buy in advance. Preparing for the season and logistical difficulties. While significant SM price reductions are expected, converters do not wait with purchases. Because logistics is now the biggest risk.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,030-1,110 €/t, while  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,080-1,200 €/t . Demand picked up due to the packaging material boom.  There is very little import from outside Europe. And European supply is also stalling.

Typical natural ABS prices were in the price range of 1,350-1,500 € last week. After the automotive industry stops, further stops are expected in the parts manufacturing industry and in the production of household appliances. There is a significant oversupply. And this is expected to get worse in the weeks ahead. When the SM price falls, it pulls the ABS prices along.